About military power and war

Mostly from ‘the Art of War’.

兵可千日而不用，不可一日而不备。

You don’t need to use your army every day. They can stay on the training ground for a long time, even three years, but you can’t skip preparing and sharpening your soldiers for a single day.

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兵者，国之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也。故经之以五事，校之以计，而索其情：一曰道，二曰天，三曰地，四曰将、五曰法。

Warfare is one of the biggest matters of a country. It’s closely related to the lives and death of the citizens and the nation; people in power need to give it uttermost care.

So you need to analyse it from 5 angles to understand the real circumstances of the enemy and your own to predict the winning possibility.

• The first is the political alignment between the emperor and the citizens. If the emperor has alignment with the citizens, the citizen can live through difficulties, thus they won’t be afraid of danger and death.
• The second is climate. Sun, rain, coldness, hotness, and seasonal shifting patterns must be taken into account of consideration.
• The third is landscape. The travelling mileage, steepness and flatness of the landscape, and narrowness of the battlefield.
• The fourth is personnel. It is to consider whether the generals are astute, brave, credible, integrity, empathetic and disciplinary.
• The fifth is management inside the army. How to split the responsibility of each person and how to manage the logistic of supply, etc.

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兵者，诡道也。故能而示之不能，用而示之不用，近而示之远，远而示之近；利而诱之，乱而取之，实而备之，强而避之，怒而挠之，卑而骄之，佚而劳之，亲而离之。攻其无备，出其不意。此兵家之胜，不可先传也。

On top of all the trickery applied to win in a war, the most important one is being discrete.

Winning a war is all about deceptions. You need to show your inability to the enemy even when you can; show the enemy you won’t be deploying this strategy even when you are using it; let the enemy think you are far apart when you are getting close or vice versa.

If the enemy is greedy then use benefits to lure them in before killing them; if the enemy is chaotic then grab the chance to kill them immediately; if the enemy is strong then defend them carefully; if they are too powerful you should avoid them; if the enemy is impulsive then harass them until they lose rational; if the enemy is cautious then play it safe and dumb until they become arrogant; if the enemy is internally harmonious then alienate them.

Attack them when they are unprepared and strike them unprecedently.

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孙子曰：凡用兵之法，驰车千驷，革车千乘，带甲十万，千里馈粮，则内外之费，宾客之用，胶漆之材，车甲之奉，日费千金，然后十万之师举矣。其用战也胜，久则钝兵挫锐，攻城则力屈，久暴师则国用不足。夫钝兵挫锐，屈力殚货，则诸侯乘其弊而起，虽有智者，不能善其后矣。故兵闻拙速，未睹巧之久也。夫兵久而国利者，未之有也。故不尽知用兵之害者，则不能尽知用兵之利也。

War is costly so play it quick.

Normally once you start a war, you will need thousands of lorries, thousands of cargo, more than 100k soldiers, transport food through thousands of miles, costs for information transactions, materials to repair weapons and lorries — — it will cost you tons of bullions. It’s only when these are ready, your army can depart.

So when it comes to war, you must ensure you have enough cash reserve regardless of winning or losing. Hence once your army attack you need to make sure they win immediately; otherwise, long battles contuse your soldiers' confidence, and they won’t have enough strength to strike.

When you prolong the battle, it damages your country’s cash reserve. Once you are weak on economic power, other countries would attack you; even your most intellectual think tank can’t reverse the situation.

‘Win by play it fast but lack of plan’ exists, but there is no ‘win by play it long with a good plan’. Long-time warfare has never benefited a country. If you don’t understand the damage of a long war, you won’t understand the benefit of winning quick.

善用兵者，役不再籍，粮不三载；取用于国，因粮于敌，故军食可足也。

People who are excellent at deploying the army won’t recruit soldiers multiple times, nor meandering transportation of supplies. They take every other supply from their home country but take care of the food supply close to the battlefield.

All the supplies will be satisfied in this way.

故杀敌者，怒也；取敌之利者，货也。故车战，得车十乘已上，赏其先得者，而更其旌旗，车杂而乘之，卒善而养之，是谓胜敌而益强。

What does it mean to defeat your enemy to make yourself stronger?

If you want your soldiers to kill, provoke them; if you want them to rob, reward them.

Incentivise the soldiers who obtained the enemy’s assets first and replace the flag on their assets to make them yours; take great care of the captives and use them as your soldier while they are scared of being killed by you.

孙子曰：夫用兵之法，全国为上，破国次之，全军为上，破军次之；全旅为上，破旅次之；全卒为上，破卒次之；全伍为上，破伍次之。是故百战百胜，非善之善者也；不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

Winning by attacking is secondary. Winning by not getting involved in the war but letting them surrender to you is the best.

Making your enemy’s whole country surrender is the №1 strategy. The secondary strategy is to attack them and then surrender.

故善用兵者，屈人之兵而非战也，拔人之城而非攻也，毁人之国而非久也，必以全争于天下。故兵不顿而利可全，此谋攻之法也。

The principle of the best winning strategy is DON’T touch the weapon.

The best general won’t win by fight but by yielding, won’t conquer a city by besieging, won’t destroy the enemy’s country by playing it long. The primary goal is to win the war by not touching the weapon but letting the enemy surrender and making sure none of their soldiers got killed, and bank notes got diminished.

故用兵之法，十则围之，五则攻之，倍则分之，敌则能战之，少则能逃之，不若则能避之。故小敌之坚，大敌之擒也。

How you deploy your army depends on how much military power you have got.

If you have 10 times more military power than your enemy then besiege and annihilate; if you have 5 times more than your enemy then attack them aggressively; if you have 1 times more then annihilate by segregation; if you have the same then defend them; if you have less than your enemy then get rid of them; if you are far less then you enemy, try to avoid facing them upfront.

A small troop is more likely to be captivated if they fight with stubbornness.

故君之所以患于军者三：不知军之不可以进而谓之进，不知军之不可以退而谓之退，是谓“縻军”；不知三军之事，而同三军之政者，则军士惑矣；不知三军之权，而同三军之任，则军士疑矣。三军既惑且疑，则诸侯之难至矣，是谓“乱军引胜”。

An emperor can harm the army in three ways:

Restrain：

• Ordered to march when he didn’t understand that it was not the time to attack.
• Ordered to retrieve when he doesn’t understand it is best not to fall back.

Management:

• Intervene the army’s internal management when he doesn’t understand how it should be managed and confuses the soldiers.

Orchestrate:

• Get involved in directing the army when he doesn’t understand the undercurrent of political power and concerns the sergeants.

If soldiers and generals are confused and concerned, it is the worst time for a country. You’d lose the war by disrupting your army.

孙子曰：昔之善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜。不可胜在己，可胜在敌。故善战者，能为不可胜，不能使敌之可胜。故曰：胜可知，而不可为。

You can predict winning, but you can’t demand a win.

In the past, people who were good at directing a war would make themselves undefeatable first, and then wait until a good time appeared to attack the army — when they were weak, chaotic or poor.

To be undefeatable, the key is to make sufficient conditions for themselves — — well-trained armies, abundant bullions and a full supply of metals and food; to defeat the enemy, is to wait for good timing and observe the enemy’s weakness.

Therefore people who are good at war can make themselves undefeatable but not necessarily defeat the enemy. This is not something that can be predicted. The right time may never come. It takes some luck.

不可胜者，守也；可胜者，攻也。守则不足，攻则有余（竹简为：守则有余，攻则不足）。善守者，藏于九地之下，善攻者，动于九天之上，故能自保而全胜也。

You can defend yourself when you are undefeatable; once your enemy is weak, you can attack. A good defence is relying on yourself and knowing you have satisfactory power; a good strike is focusing on the weakness of the enemy so once you strike you must win.

People who are good at defence hide deep under the ground so the enemy has nowhere to observe them; people who are excellent at attacking can use their army as if they appear in the sky and the enemy would be caught off guard.

It’s only if you know both of these two steps then you can protect yourself while ensuring the win.